Particularly, Oscar predictions for the year 2013. This is one of the most enjoyable years in recent memory because a fair amount of the awards are still up in the air. Will Gravity win Best Picture? Probably not. But, unlike Argo, The Artist or The King's Speech, it's not a certainty that 12 Years a Slave will walk away with Brad Pitt's first win.
As per usual, bold is my prediction and italics is what I would like to win. An asterix is what could upset (and believe me, I'll still take credit for it if that one does win.)
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle*
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Nebraska
Philomena
The Wolf of Wall Street
It's quite interesting to see that this year 12 Years a Slave could win Best Picture with only two other wins. Gravity really should win this as it's a better film than 12 Years a Slave. Yet, just like American Hustle, if Gravity did win the backlash against a good film would be strong. Look at the immediate backlash Argo had last year. Depending on how the show goes, American Hustle could upset.
Best Director
Alexander Payne - Nebraska
Alfonso Cuaron - Gravity
David O'Russell - American Hustle
Martin Scorsese - The Wolf of Wall Street
Steve McQueen - 12 Years a Slave*
There's simply no way that Alfonso Cuaron isn't going to win Best Director. The film is a directors film all the way through. Yet, unlike other years, it feels like a fair year if any of the directors won (especially given there has only been one winner in the bunch.)
Best Actor
Bruce Dern - Nebraska*
Chiwetel Ejiofor - 12 Years a Slave
Christian Bale - American Hustle
Leonardo Di Caprio - The Wolf of Wall Street
Matthew McConaughey - Dallas Buyers Club
Leonardo Di Caprio is overdue, that's a certainty. But is his role in The Wolf of Wall Street the one he deserves to be recognised for? I would argue that yes, it is. However, it's not a role which is easy to like him in. He's a possible upset against McConaughey, but really, it's Mr Alright Alright Alright's to take home. I still live in hope that Tom Hanks name will get called for Captain Phillips even though he isn't nominated.
Best Actress
Amy Adams - American Hustle*
Cate Blanchett - Blue Jasmine
Judi Dench - Philomena
Meryl Streep - August: Osage County
Sandra Bullock - Gravity
I'm still unsure how Meryl Streep got a nomination this year. She's good in August: Osage County, but it's hardly a nomination worthy role. As has been mentioned elsewhere, her performance feels more like how much acting she can do, rather than how good her acting is. Cate Blanchett gives the performance of her career in Blue Jasmine. This is a performance which will be discussed in years ahead like Daniel Day Lewis in There Will Be Blood. The upset here could be Amy Adams as some people feels she's overdue. Though, if Amy Adams wins for an adequate performance and Leonardo Di Caprio doesn't, well, there's no justice. But we already knew that.
Best Supporting Actor
Barkhad Abdi - Captain Phillips
Bradley Cooper - American Hustle*
Jared Leto - Dallas Buyers Club
Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street
Michael Fassbender - 12 Years a Slave
Barkhad Abdi is so immensely powerful in Captain Phillips that it wouldn't be a surprise if he took away the award. He's a heroic villain. Bradley Cooper is the major contender against Jared Leto though. Leto's role is ok, his character is adequate, and he's getting all the buzz, but it's not a very memorable performance. Abdi's questioning about where the elders are at the end of Captain Phillips is powerful, Cooper's co-lead role is the best in American Hustle and he has the most interesting arc in the film as well.
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Lawrence - American Hustle
Julia Roberts - August: Osage County
June Squibb - Nebraska
Lupita Nyong'o - 12 Years a Slave*
Sally Hawkins - Blue Jasmine
As much as it pains me to say, I believe that Jennifer Lawrence will win a second Oscar this year. The love for her is at fever point. She's serviceable in American Hustle, a role which is showy more than anything else. Lupita Nyong'o's abused slave is a heart breaking character, but less so for her arc and more for the actions taken against her. In another year Sally Hawkins or June Squibb would be getting a lot more attention; Hawkins in particular gives a career best performance alongside Cate Blanchett.
Best Original Screenplay
Bob Nelson - Nebraska
Craig Borten - Dallas Buyers Club
Eric Singer & David O'Russell - American Hustle*
Spike Jonze - Her
Woody Allen - Blue Jasmine
If we're talking the most original screenplay, then hands down Spike Jonze's Her takes the cake. The screenplay categories tend to favour the odd films that other categories don't reward. Add the Lost in Translation comparisons, and Spike Jonze will be looking to clear a spot on his mantle. Depending on how much love the Academy wants to throw towards American Hustle though, they may throw the film a bone here. Maybe they feel O'Russell is overdue for any award and giving him a screenplay award is just as good as a Director.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Billy Ray - Captain Phillips
John Ridley - 12 Years a Slave
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater - Before Midnight*
Steve Coogan - Philomena
Terence Winter - The Wolf of Wall Street
There was a point where trilogies would get recognition for their final film. In a perfect world, Before Midnight would win here - a just reward for Delpy, Hawke and Linklater. However, unfortunately, 12 Years a Slave needs to win another award to make its Best Picture win easier to digest and this one will be it.
Best Editing
Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers - American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron, Mark Sanger - Gravity
Christopher Rouse - Captain Phillips
Joe Walker - 12 Years a Slave*
John Mac McMurphy, Martin Pensa - Dallas Buyers Club
Ah, editing. The precursor to saying 'this film will win Best Picture'. Captain Phillips won the ACE Eddies award. People are tipping Gravity's editing to win - and a film of perfect editing it is as well. The surprise could be 12 Years a Slave - a film which feels like it's heavy handed editing over anything else, just like Meryl Streep's performance in August: Osage County, the in your face editing reinforces the films 'slavery is bad' aspect.
Best Cinematography
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
Phillipe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster
Roger Deakins, Prisoners*
Roger Deakins is overdue. Well overdue. He's a consummate cinematographer who is one of the finest in his field - in fact, quite possibly the finest in his field. Lubezki is also good, however just like last years Life of Pi, the cinematography is more computer assisted than in camera cinematography.
Production Design
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby*
Her
Sound Mixing
Captain Phillips*
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor
Sound Editing
All is Lost*
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor
Costume Design
12 Years a Slave*
American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
Sound Mixing/Editing, Costume Design and Production Design are so hard to tell as everyone votes for them. So whilst a film which truly excels at sound editing - as All is Lost apparently does - may deserve an Oscar for its fine job, it may not win. Same goes for Costume Design. A film like 12 Years a Slave has finely made costumes, as does The Great Gatsby, but maybe the cleavage on display in American Hustle may be taken as being great costumes over just a pretty dress.
Original Score
Alexandre Desplat - Philomena*
John Williams - The Book Thief
Steven Price - Gravity
Thomas Newman - Saving Mr Banks
William Butler, Owen Pallett - Her
Steven Price's score in Gravity is the third character which helps drive the film. It's a fine score which helps build the tension perfectly. I haven't listened to the other scores, however the score for Her was damn fine. However, unlike Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, I can't see some of the guys from Arcade Fire winning an Oscar.
Foreign Language Film
The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt*
The Missing Picture
Omar
Apparently Blue is the Warmest Colour was robbed here. Sure, that's fine. I can't comment on it, or any of the other films here. However, The Hunt feels like a topical film which deserves a win. The Great Beauty feels like it will become a classic in years to come though. This award is all over the shop at times.
Documentary Feature
20 Feet From Stardom
The Act of Killing
Cutie & the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square*
As much as people would like The Act of Killing to win, it's just too much of a brutal film to win. The violence on display is all suggested, but it's still a film which is just too intense to reward. Maybe it will be like 12 Years a Slave where people reward it because it's the film they should reward, but I don't see that happening here. I feel people will have gladly watched a ninety minute film about backup singers rather than a two and a half hour epic about mass murders in Asia.
Animated Feature
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest & Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises*
The only chance of an upset here is if the Academy wants to reward Miyazaki one last time. He would deserve the win. Given the topical subjects Frozen deals with though, it's got the award in the bag already.
Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug*
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness
The dragon in The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug is a great spectacle, but the effects in Gravity are just too great to ignore.
Best Makeup
Dallas Buyers Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa*
The Lone Ranger
Just like Norbit has come before it, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa has the better make up of the bunch here, but the Academy just won't reward an MTV film.
Best Song
Happy - Despicable Me 2
Let It Go - Frozen
The Moon Song - Her
Ordinary Love - Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom*
Please, please Oscar Gods, don't reward U2. Please.
Live Action Short
Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?
Helium
Just Before Losing Everything
That Wasnt Me
The Voorman Problem
Documentary Short
Cave Digger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Days: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall
Animated Short
Get a Horse!
Mr Hublot
Ferals
Possessions
Room on the Broom
These shorts... fuck them. I can never pick them properly.
The best thing about this year though is that it's looking to be a genuinely enjoyable ceremony with a few surprise wins. Ellen Degeneres will no doubt be a bland host, but she's no James Franco.
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